Friday, April 29, 2011

Massive EF5 tornado tears through Tuscaloosa

On April 27, 2011, a 1+ mile-wide (1.6 ≥ 2.4km), wedge tornado gouged a 6-mile path of destruction through Tuscaloosa, annihilating businesses and entire neighborhoods.   With wind speeds in excess of 200 mph (>322km/h), the tornado is classifiable as an EF5, falling into the most destructive category yet identified by meteorologists.  Roughly 6,000 homes fell in the direct path of the tornado, while perhaps 15,000 homes were damaged, according to Tuscaloosa mayor Walt Maddox.  At least 45 people in Tuscaloosa lost their lives; at the time of this post, hundreds still remain missing.

The storm cell that enveloped Tuscaloosa is part of a record season of tornadic activity in the US, responsible for at least 174 tornados to date.  In the state of Alabama alone hundreds are dead and missing, and hundreds of thousands of homes are still without power.






Before and After: pictures of the Tuscaloosa tornado

Below are before and after images collected by the University of Alabama's Crimson White.

DCH visible from 15th St.Chevron on the corner of McFarland Blvd. and 15th St.Full Moon and the strip mall in front of Hobby Lobby on McFarland Blvd.Bails Bonds and H&W Drugs on 15th St.A straight-on look at Hobby Lobby on McFarland Blvd.McDonalds looking toward MidTown Village on 15th St.
Looking at Hobby Lobby from the corner of McFarland Blvd. and 13th St.Batteries Plus and the Money Store strip malls on 15th St.Looking toward Midtown Village from 15th St. by Hardee'sThe University Downs intersection on 15th St.Schlotzsky's Deli and Cinnabon on 15th St.The Shell station at the corner of McFarland Blvd. and 13th St.
Hokkaido on 15th St. across from McDonaldsThe Quik Pawn Shop on 15th St. behind the Chevron stationKrispy Kreme and a billboard on McFarland Blvd.CVS on the corner of McFarland and 15th St.Mattress King on McFarland Blvd.DCH from ExpressOil on 15th St.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

アラバマ州の竜巻災害

現在のアラバマ洲の情報をお伝えします。


タスカルーサ市の死者数は32人です。現時点のアラバマ洲全体の死者数は194人だそうです。


父親はハンツビル市の隣にあるMadison市に住んでいます。あの辺は少なくとも三日間の停電予想があります。五日間もかかるかもしれません。


今タスカルーサ市の家はインターネットとテレビは繋がらないそうです。携帯電話の接続も悪い。市内には停電しているところもあります。私が住んでいた家はもう無いそうです。あそこの周辺の物は吹き飛ばされたそうです。


アラバマ大学の学生会館は一時収容施設になり、卒業式や期末試験は中止になりました。友達は全て無事のようですが物や住まいは。。。


とにかく被害が「devastating」と言われています。

Friday, April 8, 2011

Overdose or overdo? Doused and scanned for radiation

Whenever you travel, you're sure to carry away some memorable experiences.

I had to walk through a radiation scanner on my visit to Taipei last week. The experience was both nerve-wracking and ridiculous.  This is the kind of thing that makes people unnecessarily worried  (Just ask the UN).  Passengers arriving from Japan were sequestered off for a special check.  The scanner was brown and resembled a thin, lanky doorframe. There were two or three officials wearing masks sitting at a table to one side of the scanner watching to see whether those who passed triggered a red or green light.

I didn't get a chance to take a picture, but I was able to find a video of the scene in Taipei:



There's also this news report.  Of course, everyone who passed through the brown gate triggered the green light. Who knows what the Kafka-esque red light is supposed to indicate...

I think my largest dose of radiation in all of this came from the airport (a trip through the metal detector and round-trip flight.

There was one other odd detail about my flight into Taipei (departure and arrival): a large swatch of translucent blue tape (sticky side up) was set upon the floor of the jet bridge in the space directly before entering the aircraft.  The edges were taped down and the size was so large that you couldn't leap over it without a running start.  At first glance it was kind of comical, but my paranoid brain told me, "You've never had to do this before.  Is this something related to the radiation scare?"  It was sort of like flypaper for humans.  It pulled at your feet as you treaded over it.

Maybe this is just a China Airlines thing, but why both before boarding the aircraft and again when exiting?  Perhaps the strange, sticky tape trap was designed to collect radioactive dust, rather than have it being left aboard like a peanut wrapper tucked into the seat crevice.  Unfortunately for the airlines, if there really is radioactive dust on your shoes, there's probably dust in/on your clothes.  I wonder if those HEPA filters used on aircraft would collect that sort of airborne dust?  How often are those changed, anyway?

The scanning reminded me (ironically) of a similar experience...
In May 2009, I visited Japan during the swine flu scare.   I remember when I landed at Kansai International, a group of Japanese medical personnel boarded my plane clad in goggles, masks, yellow, hooded jumpsuits to screen passengers for elevated body temperatures.   The whole thing was surreal--like some cross between Predator and The Hot Zone.  Two rows behind me, someone was found with an elevated temperature, so half of the plane was quarantined (probably for ten days).

The ordeal didn't end at the airport, either.  Throughout my trip, I was pestered with calls from the Board of Health, as my flight had originated in Huntsville, AL, where there had been several confirmed cases of swine flu in the week leading up to my trip.

Traveling is always an adventure.

Shake, rattle, and roll (again) Another big earthquake/aftershock

Last night at around 11 PM there was a fairly large (and long!) earthquake/aftershock. In Narashino, what made it unique from the hundreds of others that we've experienced since March 11 was its length. In Miyagi prefecture at the epicenter, it was registered at a 7.2 magnitude. According to the news, three died from last night's quake (of course not in Narashino). If you had asked me on March 11, I don't think I would've believed it possible but I've become all too accustomed to these quakes. I was half asleep when last night's hit, and I didn't even get out of bed.

Aside from the geological report, I thought I would mention today's strange weather. The crazy kaze here in Narashino today was an incredibly strong and relentless Mary Poppins gale; it turned the land surrounding 第一中中学校 into a dustbowl (School 1 is a wonderful junior high school here in Narashino that now lies in the middle of a major construction site).

I'll let the Fishmans give you the extended forecast:

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

A good blog on the situation in Japan

I think I'll use my blog to recommend a much better blog for disaster coverage. The author goes by gakuranman. It's very well put together.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Back from Taipei

I'm back from my short visit to Taipei. Between using Japanese and English, it wasn't too hard to communicate. Having a good knowledge of kanji was extremely helpful in deciphering the landscape. Hopefully I'll be able to post something about that trip (videos/pictures) in the next week. Right now, I'm just trying to catch up with emails I received while away (term 1 starts Tuesday).

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Three days to eat my way through Taipei


It’s spring break here in Japan.  Schools are out in Narashino until next week.  I’m taking a couple of days off of work for a trip to Taiwan’s capital, Taipei; I may not be updating while I’m away.  Our non-refundable travel plan was finalized before the mega-quake, so it’s 勿体無い

This trip is food-centric.  I’m a big fan of Ang Lee’s Eat Drink Man Woman (飲食男女鵜).  I’ll finally get to try the Grand Hotel’s dim sum (日本語で点心という), and maybe I’ll even find the courage to try some stinky tofu at one of the night markets.  

In all likelihood, we’ll be scanned for radioactivity upon arrival in Taipei.  

That should make for a good story.  

頑張れ,ニッポン!

To call what's happening in Japan a "terrible tragedy" is vague.

The death toll from this disaster continues to rise, toppling 11000 with over 16,000 people still missing. Hundreds of thousands of people are still homeless, and the nuclear crisis is still touch-and-go, with radiation levels too high to work for long in several places. One body (male) was found 5km from Daichi. Radiation levels were two high to collect the corpse without first decontaminating the body. There are photos of mass funerals taking place and they simply don’t have enough caskets. Here in Narashino, we’re hundreds of kilometers away from these scenes and even though life is more or less back to normal, one need only turn on the television or glance at the newspaper headlines to be flooded with emotion. Everyone is doing what s/he can to help. Stores everywhere are darkened and operating with minimal electricity, so as to help conserve power for the region. Rolling blackouts continue and will likely last the whole of summer, if not longer. This isn’t the only disaster in the world today, but it’s the one closest to me now. I know Japan will recover, but no one can say how long it will take.

 You’ve got to do what you can-where you can-however you can.

KI at the NS: An American Odyssey

This past Sunday while I was checking for news updates I noticed that the US Embassy in Tokyo had started making KI pills freely available to US citizens at two locations in Tokyo. Previously this was something offered only to the families of government officers (diplomats and military)…and wealthy expats. I had read an article the previous day in the WSJ about an elite Tokyo club (annual membership dues of $10k) that had circulated information to its US citizen members about the availability of KI tablets. “If Dave Spector was getting potassium iodide from the US government, so was I,” I vowed.

Actually, it was more than that. As I wrote earlier, I honestly believe the danger of iodine-131 radiation in Chiba to be negligible. But rather than appearing negligent to my family and readers, I thought I would pick up the pills as a purely precautionary measure (plus it makes for an interesting blog post). Who knows when you’ll run right into a nuclear crisis, right? Hopefully this will help to calm my family down. Not only that, but the pills give me reason to start the hobby I’ve always dreamed about: scrapbooking.

On Sunday I headed into Tokyo to meet a friend who was visiting from Kyoto. I figured I better start preparing for real American contact so we headed to one of Tokyo’s best burger joint, Reg On Burger. I’m not a burger freak, but once in while I get the craving (kind of like a werewolf and the full moon). If you’re a meat-eating American who has lived in Japan longer than a month, you know that finding a real burger here is like taking on a quest for the Grail. You gallop off chasing after a beautiful dream, but the search leaves you grizzled and trail worn, burger-less as ever. Reg On Burger is about as close as I’ve come to the real thing.

After lunch, I said goodbye to my friend and headed off with passport in hand to the NSH(otel). When we finally arrived, the security guard informed me that the medicine wasn’t available today and told me to come back the next day (Monday). I know that the Embassy is incredibly busy, but this really should’ve been corrected on the website. A round trip for me in and out of Tokyo costs about 2 hrs and $10 USD, but I’m certain that for others the cost and commute is much more taxing.

On Monday I woke with a sore throat. I survived the school year without catching anything, but as soon as spring break starts I catch a cold. Not a big deal, just ironic.

After work (the students are off but I'm at the BoE during spring break), I prepared to head off to New Sanno Hotel once more. I learned my lesson, so Before leaving the house I thought to call the US Embassy and h(otel) to confirm. Unfortunately no one I spoke with could say for sure what was or wasn’t happening at the NS in regards to the KI tablets. That sounded promising to me, so I decided to try my luck again. When I arrived, I was greeted by a security checkpoint (apparently only US citizens may stay at the NS). Walking into the lobby, the first thing I notice besides the dark wood is that it smelled like the States. It’s hard to explain what I mean by that. When I was a kid, I used to fly Southwest airlines every couple of weeks. I remember the smell of these airplanes very well…roasted peanuts, cabin-pressurized air, cologne, stewardesses, well-read magazines, etc. The NSH(otel) smells like the US, or maybe I mean it smells like those planes and those planes smell like the US.

The Embassy staff was very helpful. The ballroom where they were distributing tablets was not full, but there was a steady stream of people coming in for the KI tablets (families, couples, individuals). We each got a week’s worth of KI tablets without any difficulties. I thought some of you would be interested in reading the information provided with the tablets...






So we each got a week’s worth of KI tablets, which is more than enough for either of us. It’s extremely unlikely (and becoming more and more unlikely) that these will become necessary during the current crisis. I doubt I will ever need to use them, but then again I can’t say that I expected any of this to happen. Sure, I had heard that the Big One was coming to Kanto, but in my mind it was always just “coming” not “arriving.”

The Embassy staff told me that if it were necessary to take the pills, it would not be advisable to take a week’s worth. If it ever became necessary to take the pills, one should plan on leaving the area as soon as possible. The pills should only be used until you’re safely away from the Iodine-131 threat.

Not quite your average Sunday in Tokyo...

Suddenly startling cesium starts sounding silly?

Sibilant onomatopoeia.

A lot of people will tell you, Uranium’s unstable spawn, cesium-137, is not the kind of isotope you want to invite home for dinner. Unfortunately in certain parts of Japan the radioisotope reared its ugly rays (The amount is extremely low and so not thought to be a danger to health.). This is the kind of unstable element that hiccups radiation for decades before fading out. It’s a real man’s radioisotope, hanging out mostly in your muscle tissue like a gym rat. Fortunately, the body is good at housekeeping (especially with a little help from Prussian blue to wash it down). Within 10-100 days of sucking down some cesium, your body will give half of it the boot. This isn’t to say that the element decays nearly as fast. Cesium-137’s half life is 30.17 years. Better out than in, though.

So long iodine-131 and 134

It’s been 17 days since the earthquake (the date I posted this and the date I wrote it differ). So long as no more nuclear fission is being produced (this seems likely at this point), the overall quantity should be decreasing, right? The stuff that was produced is still blowing about, though. How long will it take for the iodine produced on the day of the mega-quake to dissipate from the environment?


*Note: My MA is in applied linguistics. Sure, I had high school science and I like to read, but that hardly qualifies me to do more than ask questions and safely operate my microwave oven. If you’re a hard scientist, please feel free to correct any errors in my table.

This post will focus on iodine-131 because it’s become the Charlie Sheen of radionuclides. Iodine-131 is dangerous to living things because it is has highly energetic beta radiation. In other words, it likes to shake its tail feather. Beta radiation from iodine-131 can extend 0.6 – 2 mm. It’s a danger to humans because your thyroid slurps up iodine until its stuffed. Other parts of the body use/absorb iodine, but the thyroid gets its fill first. There’s a pecking order in your body and when it comes to iodine your thyroid is first in line. Unfortunately for us mortals, in its feeding frenzy, the human thyroid doesn’t distinguish between radioactive iodine and stable iodine.

Iodine-131 does have its uses, though. It can be used to treat certain types/stages of thyroid cancer. Getting a little iodine-131 dust on your skin is n reason to panic, as it isn’t rapidly absorbed that way. According to a study by Nyiri and Jannitti (1932), only 1-2% of iodine applied topically is absorbed into the blood stream readily. An additional 8-11% of the iodine applied to the skin will be absorbed into the skin, where it will slowly be released into the bloodstream. 12% of a miniscule amount is...to use a technical expression, “very, very little.”

Breathing in radioactive iodine attached to dust particles and pollen is something that’s been suggested in overseas media. Wearing a mask might protect you breathing in a lungful of pollen and a couple of hitchhiking atoms of iodine-131.

This reminds me of a joke that some BoE members made the other day in the hallway. Right now in Japan, cedar pollen is around its peak. Many people are terribly allergic to the pollen, so they wear masks to minimize their irritation and hay fever. The pollen is so plentiful that it was collecting on the roofs and awnings of buildings in the area. Since the pollen is a wild shade of neon yellow, several teachers made the joke that it was radioactive Godzilla dust, and not pollen at all.

You can see how seriously educators here take the threat of airborne radioactive dust. It’s a non-issue for them at this point.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this post, iodine-131 has a short half-life (roughly eight days). It was already in extremely low concentrations, and continues its rapid decay. Some foreigners in and around Tokyo and Chiba (and their relatives) are worried about recent reports of contaminated water. Admittedly, hearing that your tap water may be contaminated (with anything in however small an amount) is never a reason to celebrate. It’s natural to be concerned, I think. You can’t see it or smell it but you’re told it is there in X quantity.

Maybe the rest of this post will help assuage unreasonable fears by putting the matter into perspective.

The bad news is…if you were exposed to any iodine-131, and you swallowed (water, air, etc), the isotope made its way into your blood (so says Keith Baverstock).

The good news is…even if we assume dose effects to a linear no-threshold model (that is, a constant positive correlation between radiation and risk), your increased risk of cancer from exposure to contaminated tap water is roughly 0.003% for men and 0.02% for women (Hoffman)(It looks like we're all still insurable for cancer, huh?). The influence at this dose is so small, it’s said to be indistinguishable from the normal (random) rate of occurrence in a population. Not only that, but the estimated 0.003% increase in risk for men assumes that you’re drinking 2 L of 200 Bq tap water a day. If you’re over 40, relax-- you’re over 40; you have enough to worry about as it is (try not to light that cigarette, though). If you’re over 40, congratulations…your chances of increased cancer risk from Tokyo tap water seem non-existent (I’m guess that’s got to be the best news that you’ve heard since turning 40). So far, for those of us in and around Tokyo, worrying about low-dose radiation is probably the clearest danger to physical and mental well-being.

It get’s even better (maybe).

The absolute best-case scenario is… being exposed to a low dose of radiation may actually lessen your chances of developing cancer. There’s not a whole lot of evidence for this, and if something seems too good to be true, it probably is...

I’m a cautious guy, so I’m betting that the effect of iodine-131-infused tap water should be null (neither slightly good nor slightly bad). There are simply too many confounding variable to say much of anything about the effects of low dose radiation with confidence.

Am I groundlessly confident? Not really. Am I without concern? My concern is diminishing the more I learn about this (and so should yours!).

First, I should say that I’ve preemptively started on a strict red wine/sake regiment…indefinitely…

That’s got to be reducing my tap water intake, right?

More seriously, though…

I mentioned that Hoffman’s predicted 0.003% increase risk in developing cancer assumes consuming 2 L of 200 Bq of tap water, daily. In Chiba (where I live), the Bq level is significantly lower (0.79 Bq/kg). Even if I “recklessly” drank 6 L of this water, I shouldn’t see anything near as much as a 0.2% increase risk of thyroid cancer from contaminated tap water. Lucky for me, this “risk” is decreasing day-by-day, thanks to iodine-131’s relatively short half-life.

A word of caution, though…

Are you pregnant or preadolescent? Are you an infant or soon-to-be newborn? If so, you should try to avoid drinking contaminated tap water as much as possible. Adolescent development is very sensitive stuff, as you’ve probably heard. If you’re preadolescent and you have to drink the water, don’t panic—your increased risk of cancer (based on the available science) is still very low (but the increase is life-long). The closer to age zero (i.e. fetuses, infants) you are, the more dangerous radiation and carcinogens seem to be. That’s seems pretty intuitive, though.

One thing I was unable to find when preparing this post was this: how quickly is iodine processed by the thyroid? I’m not sure how relevant it is to the discussion of iodine-131, but I’m curious. Is iodine consumption by the thyroid a constant rate, or influenced by exercise, diet, age, gender, genetics, etc? Since metabolic rates differ so greatly among individuals, I’m guessing the rate this fuel is burned by the thyroid also differs…there should be a normal range, though.


If you're using what I've written to make a decision about your health, let me remind you that I'm not a doctor or a scientist, just a concerned reader.

Meet your radionuclides!

It’s important to know your radioisotopes. Not all radionuclides are created equal (in fact, none of them are). Each isotope has unique properties (radiation, rates, ranges, and lifespans).

I'll dedicate the next couple of posts to talking about cesium and iodine radioisotopes.

The US Embassy in Tokyo has a Youtube channel


A welcomed video from the US Embassy in Tokyo

The head of the National Cancer Institute, Dr. Norman Coleman, talks about radiation in and around Tokyo.  

Those who are worried would do well to watch this (in order to relax and get some perspective).


Some new words and why I read SF

For along time now—longer than I can remember—I've been interested in how memory works. What is a memory? How do memories persist? How are they stored in the mind? What is stored? How do memories interact? How do memories change over time?

I am always looking for ways to improve memory or learning/uptake. As an educator, I put a lot of weight into Schmidt's noticing hypothesis. When something new is brought to one’s attention incidentally, it is an excellent opportunity to form and flesh out a long-term memory.

I’m a very curious person and I’m always asking questions. As I grow older, I try to be more tactful and show more restraint with my curiosity, but it still sometimes gets me into trouble. I try to learn and absorb as much as I can. One essential part of that process is reading. I try to read widely, regularly, and critically. This isn’t to say that I’m authoritative on anything. The most important thing I’ve realized from reading is how little I know (and how little others know). Luckily, it is this realization that keeps me reading.

One genre that I enjoy is SF. People often ask me why I read SF. For some reason, many people are unable to see the value in science fiction. They are unaware of its most important authors and themes. The best SF is a marriage of the things we value in fiction and science. SF produces some of the finest meditations on origins, reality, identity, relationships, and the future (it also provides some of the most insipid). Fiction provides a wealth of lofty ideas, abstract paintings of dimensions both foreign and familiar; Science provides the craft for ascent. Of course, many people will groan when they discover that I read science texts as well. It’s been my experience that many scientists (physicists, astronomers, etc) already read SF (some of them write it). The best SF, after all, is that which is informed by real science. It explores the future and the paths that might lead us there. It promotes interest in the science behind the fiction (SF encourages science literacy), and thus elliptically draws those of us in a (darker) more distant orbit towards the light of science.

Fiction may allow us to hallucinate, but science can teach us how to reveal the unseen world (fiction is an acid drop; science is a microscope).

Lately there has been a great deal of talk about invisible threats here in Japan. Some of it is hallucinatory fever stuff and some of it is scientific revelation. It’s essential (but at times very difficult) to be able to distinguish between the two. We’re getting snapshots of the larger picture. Unfortunately fitting them altogether is akin to fiddling with a tanagram puzzle: there are many shapes the data can take.

I read SF, so I deal with “far-out” ideas and what ifs. Recently, though, I encountered some things in the media that were a little unfamiliar…how about you? How many of these can you define without peeking?

Seivert (Sv)
Becquerel (Bq)
Neutron beam
Gray (Gy)
Iodine-131 (131I)
Iodine-134 (134I)
Cesium-137 (Cs-137)
Radionuclide
Radiation hormesis
Spent fuel pool
Cold shutdown
Temblor
Dose fractionation
linear no-threshold model (LNT)
Radioresistance

Friday, March 18, 2011

A way to help

Thanks to all of the friends, family, and strangers who have emailed me.  Some of you have already donated to help with disaster relief in the hardest hit areas of Japan.  For those of you who can spare (any amount is appreciated), Lisa Keyes and the Tuscaloosa Sister Cities Commission is organizing a way to donate.  This money will be wired to Narashino.  Then Narashino (the city office) will send this money to an area in need (or to an appropriate disaster relief organization).  There still isn't enough food for people in the hardest hit areas and they have had to endure freezing nights.  These are people with families (infants, elderly relatives).  These are people who had homes and lives a little over a week ago and then lost everything to the earthquakes and tsunami.  Whole cities were wiped out.  Some of these survivors are sadly now orphans and widows, but most still don't know whether or not their love ones are alive.  If everyone who reads this were to donate a dollar and then ask a friend to do the same, I believe that we could make a real impact.

Saturday in Narashino

Things are calming down in Narashino.  I noticed yesterday that a few buildings were recently torn down.  I can't say for certain that all of these were due to the mega-quake (and aftershocks?), but at least one was.  I'll post pictures (before and after) in a later post.

The crisis in Fuskushima is far from solved, but so far the impact is minimal here in Narashino.  Chiba Prefecture continues to post atmospheric radiation readings (gamma) on their site.  Today I translated this document, to make it easier to understand for English readers who cannot read Japanese. I'm just looking for ways to help people involved in all of this.



My translation is publicly viewable via this link.  Clearly these numbers are very encouraging.  The gamma radiation so far has not been dangerous or significantly different from what it was a year ago.  Based on this data, I would say the change in radiation levels here in Chiba so far has been negligible.

My mother used to work as a chemical engineer for the US Environmental Protection Agency. She's been helpful with information on types of radiation. I was browsing the EPA's site today and found this, which gives some useful information on different types of radioactive material. It's not really important for the situation here in Chiba, but it's useful to make sense of some of the terms being thrown around in the media.

There are a bunch of helpful data-driven resources out there to help better understand the situation in Fukushima.  Here's a link to some very helpful presentation slides made by Benjamin Monreal, Assistant Professor in the Department of Physics at UC Santa Barbara.  I encourage those of you who want to learn a little more about the situation in Fukushima to review the entire presentation.  I'll post several slides below that I found especially helpful.  Hopefully Dr. Monreal won't be upset...I added captions beneath each slide.

The atmospheric radiation that we've seen (in Chiba, at least) so far only makes sense to measure in microseiverts, so I feel pretty safe looking at the data.

Fukushima's design and fuel system bears some important differences from Chernobyl.  

This isn't a comfort to many people in Fukushima who had to evacuate their homes, but it clearly could've been much worse. 

The half-life of these isotopes is a little encouraging.  Wow, remove the top 10 cm of soil?  That sounds difficult to do right.  As anyone would quickly tell you, I'm not a scientist (just concerned and wanting to learn).  I wonder if that takes into account rainfall/rates of infiltration, etc.  An earlier slide in the presentation shows which elements (and thus their isotopes) are water soluble.  In any case, this gives you a sobering sense of what some of the long-term effects are going to be around Fukushima.

That's all for now.  I'll try to update again soon.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Wherever the wind carries me

An update on the decaying situation at Fukushima Daiichi (福島第一) nuclear power plant ...

For those of you at home watching or reading, here's what's happened with the evacuation zone in Fukushima: The Japanese government started with a 20 km radius and then then increased that to 30 km. Now the US government is tell its citizens within a 50 mile (80 km) radius of the Fukushima Daiichi (福島第一) nuclear power plant to evacuate. In addition, the Embassy also addresses the constantly changing nature of the problem:

We want to underscore that there are numerous factors in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, including weather, wind direction and speed, and the nature of the reactor problem that affect the risk of radioactive contamination within this 50 mile (80 km) radius or the possibility of lower-level radioactive materials reaching greater distances.

This truly is a situation changing minute by minute. When you wake up in the morning, you can't help but wonder which way the wind is blowing (and when that might change). Such thoughts, regardless of the data available, these thoughts come to mind uninvited.

The State Department's move to recommend extending the evacuation zone raises some important questions. They are clearly being careful to avoid inciting or fueling panic by rashly advising citizens to evacuate Kanto. Given the relatively large US citizen population in Kanto (just in the Tokyo area alone), you can imagine what such a recommendation would cause. I don't mean to belittle the embassies that have already advised their citizens leave Kanto if possible; the foreign national population of represented by those embassies in Kanto is comparatively small. And to those who have left (or will leave) Tokyo or Kanto, I understand your decision. You have your family and friends to think about. It is not an easy decision to make. To those of you who have decided to stay (for now), I understand your decision. You have your family and friends to think about. It is not an easy decision to make. As I said, no matter how rational or irrational concerns of radiation in Tokyo/Chiba were, are, or will become, you cannot help but wonder about these things and what a "worst case scenario" might look like. Most of the time you're thinking about this while the ground beneath you is shaking yet again as another quake rolls through. There is so much conflicting information in the media. It's been hard to find food in a lot of places. Rice is sold out almost everywhere. I listened to some Japanese reports that said supplies should be back to normal by next week. Hopefully for everyone that's reliable. Obviously a mass exodus from Tokyo would be a crisis in and of itself. Can you imagine?

Even the Japanese are starting to get a little paranoid. For the past month or so, many people have been suffering from hay fever. For some reason, I'm unaffected. Surgical masks are a common sight. The belief is that wearing the masks will help alleviate some of the irritation. Today I noticed a lot of students wearing masks as well, so I asked some of them if their hay fever was worsening...a couple of them told me that they were wearing the masks because to prevent breathing in 被爆 (radiation exposure). Even here in Narashino the calm Japanese nerve is starting to wear a little thin. People go six grocery stores and start to worry, because they can't find rice, milk, or noodles. Too many students at my school still don't have running water. Parents are worrying, but they're still sending their kids to school.

Narashino is about 132 miles (~212.4 km) from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. I`ve made a map to help people get a sense of the distance:

The point you see in the middle is the Tokai nuclear power plant. Things there are now safe. The northernmost blue point at the end of the line (in the shadow of the text box) marks the location of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The most recent radiation levels for my area posted on Chiba prefecture's site are not alarming. It is reassuring that there are now official readings oF radiation levels made public by the surrounding prefectures.

Exhausted workers are struggling to cool the No. 2 reactor there, and are having trouble with fires in reactors 2 and 4. From what I understand the spent fuel pools are burning and that water is evaporating, exposing more and more of the rods to the atmosphere. The self-defense force along with the US military has been unable to get close enough to do anything about it because of surging radiation levels around the reactors. One attempted operation was to drop water from above the burning reactor building via a helicopter. They had to abort immediately after takeoff. Right now it looks like they're going to try to extinguish the fires from the ground with the water cannons of fire trucks. There have already been official reports of elevated radiation levels in at least one city in Fukushima. From what experts are saying, these levels are not yet harmful. Whether or not this is true one must ask why the radiation levels in drinking water are elevated. If the levels are indeed low, then could they be due to airborne particulates accumulating on intake water's surface? Or is it something more serious? I won't speculate because I don't want to alarm others without reason. The water table itself is indeed elevated, due to the many quakes and the tsunami.

There has also been a great deal of talk in the Japanese media about the containment vessel being breached. This is worrying, but not so shocking when you consider the forces at work: the many large quakes in the area, the hydrogen explosions, high pressures/temperatures, etc. When we talk about a breach in the containment vessel, do we mean the inner container or the outer container? Given the information available (pressure loss, radiation levels, etc), it seems likely that the outer container (a concrete shell) of at least one reactor has almost certainly been breached, but what about the inner container? What is the extent/size of the breach? Unfortunately no one can get close enough to inspect and the structural integrity in detail.

The US Embassy is clearly analyzing all the data they can access and using it to make rational decisions to try to keep US citizen safe. Will the Japanese government soon follow up with a similar order? This is concerning as this is the first time so far in this crisis that the US Embassy in Tokyo has deviated from the Japanese government's recommendations. At this point they're being more cautious than Japanese government, and perhaps relying more heavily on their own intelligence. The US is sending military personnel and experts to help address the problems at the plant, but who knows what's next? The nuclear crisis is indeed escalating.

Narashino in pictures

The Monday following the mega-quake, I spent part of the afternoon taking pictures of some of the more noticeable damage in my area.


This is a parking lot next to my home.

This is the closest public hall (菊田公民館) for my ward. If you look closely, you can see a horizontal crack in the lined face. The upper room must've lost a window, as a blue tarpaulin has been hanging there for the past week.

A closer look...

I wrote my account of the day of the mega-quake and its immediate aftermath in an earlier post. Here are some pictures I took several days later to help illustrate some of what I described:

This is a decent curry chain that sits directly across from Keisei Tsudanuma Station (京成津田沼駅). I remember running past this building in my suit and noticing debris on the sidewalk. When I went out to take pictures several days later, I realized the damage was pretty serious.


I mentioned an electric pole crashing into the side of an apartment building. It's been partially righted now, but you can see the points of impact it made with the streetface of the apartment building behind it.

Behind this building was the heart of the fire I described. The flames shot into the alley.


That's all that's left of the building that caught fire. The cause was a toppled chimney/furnace from the adjacent bath house (those cracks you see in the building corner in the right side of the frame belong to the bath house). I never got to visit the bath house before the mega-quake, and from what I've heard I never will.


This building is across the street from the fire. In my description, it was to my back.

This is the graveyard I stumbled into...the building in the distance suffered some serious damage...

Here's a closer shot...There was a small fire and most of the rear face (exterior) fell away. The rubble is still pebbled among the graves.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Graduation and radiation

This was my update for Tuesday:


On the school/work side of things...







There was an earthquake during the graduation ceremony, but resolve was not shaken. I've been told that the school principal started out as an opera singer. He has a deep, bellowing voice, and the eyes of a sad catfish (trust me on this). He was in the middle of a speech when the tremor hit, but his voice didn't so much as pause or fluctuate in intensity. Whether or not going through with the ceremony was a good (i.e. safe) idea, I have to acknowledge that the guy is resolute.

The ceremony seemed like it would last forever (2 hours, I think). We teachers bowed at least fifty times throughout the ceremony before it was over. The homeroom teachers of the graduating student were well-dressed and clearly proud. Looking at their faces and posture, made me feel sad for not being able to spend more time getting to know these students before graduation. The choral performance was really very impressive, though. I had convinced myself that the ceremony was sure to be interrupted by a violent quake or news of some worsening crisis that when it finally ended, I realized my nails had left little white impressions in the meat of my palm. Needless to say, I was enormously relieved when it was over and nothing had happened...maybe my fear was a little irrational?

Now for the real news...

The chances of a major aftershock are now 40%; on the 17th, that will change to 20%. After I wrote that, there was a relatively big one in Shizuoka (near Mt. Fuji, I guess you could say). Some people were asking experts if this could wake the dormant volcano up. Luckily that seems about as likely as me getting a sex change. The quake was strong/long enough here in Narashino to actually make me stop typing for a few minutes, but nothing fell over in the house...the whole place just moved quite a bit. Some good news: the Tokai nuclear plant is in good shape, and the Fukushima Daini nuclear power plant is almost totally "cold" now. This is very encouraging. There have been a few (brief) radiation spikes in areas as far from Fukushima as Tokyo, but things have dropped backed down. The wind is has now shifted towards the ocean (thankfully for us, but still not a good thing for the environment).

A lot of people are reportedly having trouble buying provisions. Many things are sold out, but not everything. On Tuesday night, I visited a 24-hour supermarket about half a mile from my home. Here are some photos:

Sold out of refrigerated natto (I'm not a fan of this slimy stuff anyway) and tofu:





Why would refrigerated products be flying off the shelves? Since natto is already "spoiled" you don't have to worry too much about it getting worse (that makes sense in a Japanese way, at least). What about tofu, though? I think it's because it can be eaten cold and is actually quite delicous that way when you add a little ginger and soy sauce (see hiyayakko)

Almost completely sold out of canned food:






Completely sold out of cup noodles:





The guy wearing the surgical mask is trying to order more. The guy with the basket is considering buying some powdered soup (just add water!).



This sign regretfully informs customers that bottled water has sold out for the day:


It's not just bottled water. Most dairy products were quickly swept from the shelves by anxious buyers.


Not everything is sold out, though. In fact, certain kinds of food are fully stocked:



Doesn't that look delicious? Produce in Japan tends to be of a higher quality that what's sold at Wal-mart in the US (but you pay for it. Fruit can be 2-3 times as expensive as the average price in the US). People aren't buying fresh produce, because of fear of spoilage (or yet-unfounded fears of contamination by radioactive dust). Isn't now the time to buy fresh things--before the power outages/loss of refrigeration? Even with the planned outages, power shouldn't be out in areas where the grid is still intact for stretches longer than 5 hours at a time. If you are careful about closing your refrigerator door (I'm assuming most people are), spoilage from heat shouldn't be a problem.

I don't think we have to worry about food shortages in my city just yet...my city is supposed to participate in planned power outages, but so far it hasn't happened here. Radiation levels are still safe here (Narashino/Tokyo), but who knows what we'll wake up to.

The Japanese population here doesn't seem freaked out at all...of course they're sort of conditioned not to panic in the event of an earthquake nor is this the first nuclear crisis connected to a major earthquake that they've had here, either. I'm really tired, so I'm going to try to sleep. Thanks for your messages.

Some people overseas are trying to advise me to take iodine tablets..I figure they're talking about this.

From what I've read, taking idione supplement could be harmful in itself (besides, survival rates for thyroid cancer in the developed world are very encouraging:>80% for women and 74% for men). Seriously though, for now the reports of elevated radiation in and around Tokyo are being misinterpreted. The increase is only marginally above the average, and thus isn't serious enough to warrant panic.

From what I've read, the brief spikes around here were "not immediately dangerous to human health." They never reached higher than 0.8 microsieverts (I'm up on the lingo!). As grounds for comparison, one chest X ray is roughly a 0.02 millisievert (20 microsieverts) dose of radiation. While it's nothing to celebrate, it certainly isn't causing me to worry whether or not your poop may start to glow. I wish there were some continuous official Geiger counts available to the public, but I could see how that could incite panic. There's a guy in Tokyo taking continuous readings from out of his building window. There are readings being recorded in Chiba City, but it doesn't seem as if the results are available to the public (at least not online).

Yes, the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant are worrisome, namely Reactor 2. The spent fuel in a neighboring building caught fire today and the smoke produced was likely very hazardous. They've suffered several strong shocks there today as well (rated between 5-6.2). If that reactor were to detonate, it could cause the other reactors to start heating again. If that happens, I think we'll leave Kanto ASAP.

The unfortunate thing is, it sounds like even in the best-case-senario, it still may take weeks to get these reactors at Fukushima Daiichi cooled down completely. I think there will be rolling blackouts in most of Kanto throughout April. Narashino has been scheduled to participate in these planned power outages since Monday, but so far we haven't been cut off once.

That's it for Tuesday in Narashino. As of this moment, my house still has running water and electricity. Expect another update soon.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Power outages, hydrogen explosions...and work as usual?

Quite a bit has changed since my last update.

This was what I had prepared for Monday:

Believe it or not, on Monday most of Narashino (and Tokyo) scrambled back to work wearing their poker faces. If you had been in a coma, and only just woken up on Monday without any knowledge of the megaquake, the first thing out of the ordinary that you might've noticed is that the number of two-wheeled vehicles had doubled. I suppose too many people had been stranded far from home by halted trains and gridlock traffic. I noticed as early as Friday night that many people were buying bicycles.

If you were a visitor from out of the country, you would assume that people were hurrying out of fear, perhaps rushing to the supermarket before going home to huddle with their families before another aftershock. Yes, their afraid...not of earthquakes, but of being late for work. The truth is, the morning commute in Japan is seriously hair-raising. People are pedaling madly on rattling granny bikes weaving through pedestrians and lines of cars waiving caution and courtesy to the wind to desperately avoid being even a moment late clocking in.

The Japanese are often characterized as being polite and docile. Whoever first said this never say a morning commute in Japan; he or she must've been a late riser or an unemployed sociologist working from home.

For some reason I can't well explain, I left the safety of my home to brave the sea of salaryman looking to arrive early and make up for lost time. Why did I decide to head to work? Wouldn't it have been safer to head to Kansai or Hokkaido? At the time, given the information available, maybe so. The truth is I wanted to help if I could, I figured the students would be visibly shaken, and I still felt relatively safe if I stayed within Narashino (i.e. within a 30 minute walk from my front door). I didn't think the day would last long, either. Narashino was scheduled for a planned power outage starting at 9:20 AM. I thought that I would say some encouraging things to the kids, swap stories and information with concerned teachers and head home before lunch.

I couldn't have been more naive. As it turned out, even the planned blackout didn't happen.

As I walked to school, I surveyed the damage in the neighborhoods nearer the sea. It seemed far worse than the area surrounding my home. Property boundary walls had collapsed and the roads and sidewalks had split and sunk noticeably in sections. Students I met along the road gave me sleepy smiles and cheerful greetings. They didn't seemed shaken in the least.



When I arrived at school, the first thing I noticed were the enormous cracks that splintered through the athletic fields. No one was practicing this morning. The entire area was fenced off. I was told that, unlike some of the other schools in the city, school seven's power and water was still functioning. The building's integrity was still reported secure, although there was some crumbling of concrete around the corners nearest the ceiling joints.

The weather looked like rain. At our morning meeting, no one seemed the least bit concerned about the situation we were facing. Given the conversations that followed (or didn't follow) I must have imagined seeing a teacher or two rubbing tears from the corners of their eyes as they watched live footage of a hydrogen explosion at one of the reactors at Fukushima's Daiichi nuclear plant. No one was interested in discussing the growing list of concerns begrudgingly confessed by officials. The teachers sort of ignored me, but I can't really take it personally. After all, they had more important things to worry about, one thing in particular: Tuesday's graduation. We needed to rehearse for the ceremony and clean the school. hoping that tomorrow's graduation ceremony will not be interrupted by a power outage or violent aftershock. "You see, the date for graduation can't be changed," one teacher explained to me matter-of-factly, "because we've already put dates on the students' graduation certificates."

Soon we were cleaning the school in preparation for Tuesday's graduation ceremony. I was helping students clean the second floor verandas around the gymnasium. While my back was turned, one student had straddled the veranda wall in order to better beat the dust from an old yellow rug hanging over the side. All I could think was, "what if that major aftershock were to hit?" I tell him to get down, and a perhaps ten minutes later or phones start to wail like sirens and before I have time to check the school is swaying as yet another quake hits. Everyone in the gymnasium is on the ground and the teachers look scared, so much so that I can tell by their faces and posture from the other side of the gymnasium. The tremor is over in another few moments and everyone is back to work as if nothing has happened. One of the students points at a crack in the wall of the veranda we're cleaning. I can't be sure whether it's new, "recent," old, or old.

At this point, I'm convinced that either I'm crazy, or the rest of Japan is. It just doesn't seem like a good idea to be back at work today when at any moment we could enter a planned or unplanned blackout. I'm getting messages from overseas all day on my phone urging me to leave for all sorts of reasons.

Many of the Europeans living and working in the Kanto area have fled on the recommendation of several embassies (France, Switzerland, and Germany). My French friend working in a Tokyo bank left for France this morning (along with most of her French co-workers). She (and many other friends have) been encouraging us to leave Kanto for awhile, but I think we'll bunker down for now.

The headlines Monday weren't too encouraging: confirmed deaths exceed 3000 (and expected to soar), more aftershocks (400+ across the country), millions of homes without power or water, and some sort of hydrogen explosion occurred at two of the three nuclear reactors at the Fukushima plant. There is another plant closer to Tokyo (Tokai) where they are trying to keep its last diesel generator running to continue cooling the nuclear reactor there. Luckily they were able to begin the reactor's shutdown process early into the disaster and temperatures there have been steadily cooling since.

As you probably know, various meteorological agencies around the world are predicting that by Wednesday (March 16, 2011) a 7-8 magnitude aftershock will hit Kanto. Of course, no one knows exactly where in Kanto such a quake would originate. The probability of such an aftershock was thought to be roughly 70%. This is troubling as the size (depending on depth) is big enough to potentially worsen everything (new tsunamis, more trouble with power/radiation leaks, etc).

Let's hope for the best. I'm realistically confident in the structural integrity of Japanese buildings.

I feel sort of powerless to do much of anything at this point, other than prepare as well as possible. I'm hoping to be able to help in the areas harder hit when transportation is up and running again.

As I mentioned earlier, we're now under planned power outages even here in Narashino, so I'll post this now while I still have a working internet connection.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

This was the Godzilla Quake

Let me start by saying that I'm fine.

I was at work when the quake hit. It started out as just a quiet Friday afternoon like any other. I was sipping coffee and working on a presentation. We had been listening to a City Hall meeting being broadcast live. The weather was pleasant, and I was thinking about how to spend the weekend. Then the quake hit. At first, I thought it was just your average tremor and that it would be over in another moment, but the crescendo was just beginning to build.

It had been a dull, sometimes comic debate, but suddenly the cadence changed. One voice became a roomful, a perturbed chorus heard through crackling static. People began yelling. We could hear them evacuating (fleeing) the chamber. It was like watching a forest fire on TV while your house is burning around you.

I work on the second floor of the Board of Education, which is housed in an old school building. People started screaming, I sort of stood there still believing that it would be over in another moment. When the manliest guy in Narashino, a hulking 6 ft + ex-judo star turned junior high basketball coach disappeared beneath his desk, I knew then that I had better do the same.

I cram as much of myself as I can in the small space beneath my desk. There's this shelf under there digging into my knee. I always thought it convenient, but now I'm cursing it. As I'm crouched there with my rear exposed, I realize that my computer is still on my desk, so I grab it. The shaking gets wilder. Cabinets are toppling, I can hear the metallic squeal of lights swinging madly, and I'm thinking, "I should've bought one of those white helmets."

I start wondering what if the building collapses? How will I get back to check on my fiancee? I can hear the voice of the sweet old woman whose desk is next to mind, repeating the same word again and again in the saddest voice, "kowai, kowai, kowai ("I'm so scared...scared...so scared...")." That's about the time the first quake started to subside. I jump out from under my desk and I see one of the other BoE members trying to move this massive filing cabinet that's fallen against the rear of a desk. I head over there and push the cabinet back into balance. Suddenly a teacher emerges from beneath the desk behind me. She had been trapped under her desk because of the cabinet.

We head out of the building before the first aftershock hits. We stumble outside as the first aftershock hits. It felt like I had too much to drink, I'm sick to my stomach and having trouble keeping my balance. There are sirens blaring, the phones aren't working. We're all dazed and trying to get our bearings. The trains are stopped. The wail of the sirens is growing louder. I notice that there's a tremor in my hand. Everyone in Japan is trying to call someone.

I'm starting to panic about my loved ones. I can't get through on my phone and all I can hear are sirens. So I start running down the street towards home with my suit jacket flapping. I'm running down the street and I see that cars are stopped to let police and fire trucks pass. I turn the corner and I start having trouble breathing. There's an acrid smell in the air and a huge black cloud is billowing down the street. I get closer and see a scene out of a movie. Some crazed guy on a moped is jostling with a car to try to flee before whatever is burning takes the road with it. I make my way down the street to where the smoke is thickest and there are four or five firefighters already hard at work. An electric pole is leaning against an apartment building. The people who were standing spellbound a moment ago suddenly cower as a crash reverberates along the awnings that line the shopfronts on either side of the street. Something behind the building collapses and enormous orange flames burst out. The firefighter starts screaming into a bullhorn for people to get back into their homes. I slip through a narrow alley into a temple graveyard and make my way back home.

This disaster movie continues. The air here smells like rain and ozone. I'm flat out running and I throw open the door like a movie. We pick up the things that had fallen over. No noticeable damage. The power is on and the water is still running. Unbelievably the $20 bookcase we bought from Ikea endured the quake without even wobbling.

When I finally calm down enough to notice the TV, I'm seeing things out of some kind of big-budget Hollywood disaster movie. Hundreds of cars are being swept along writhing waves, an airport is covered in something like a mudslide. Some massive supply of oil held in the JFE industrial site next to Tokyo Disney has exploded and the flames are filling the sky like a warzone. How surreal it must be for someone to have walked out of Space Mountain and see that eruption.

I'm trying to change clothes, but there are more quakes and neither of use is sure how strong they're going to become. After I change we pack up some things, double check the gas valve, turn off the power, and head out to check on the neighbors. I return to the office and help them straighten up. "I've never experienced a quake like this," people keep telling me. One of the guys hands me a helmet and tells me half-jokingly that we should take turns wearing it.

Today, things have relaxed a bit. The tremors continue, but some of the trains are moving again. People who were stranded Tokyo all night are finally able to begin the long trip home. My neighbors and friends are thankfully fine, but the rest of Japan isn't. Fires are still burning and the quakes are still coming. Some news reports are saying that the aftershocks in the coming week could reach a magnitude of 7. I've read that there have already been over 100 small quakes since yesterday's monster.

The news we're seeing is surreal. Electricity is out in many places. The pipes are a mess, so many people are without running water. There are some serious fear about a possible meltdown at a nuclear power plant in the neighboring prefecture of Fukushima and what the effects might be for the rest of the country. They're trying to calculate the potential fallout based on various wind speeds.

Whenever it rains next, it will shower most of those unfortunate to be outside with a bunch of awful things being swept and swirled around in the air. I'm hearing about these bizarre quake precursors, like a bunch of whales washing up on the shore, strange bird flight, etc. Everyone is desperately trying to make sense of this disaster.

This was a Godzilla Quake, but Japan is handling it as well as can be expected. The current DPJ government will be made or broken by their response to this disaster and their plan for recovery.